2020 Presidential Predictions Part III
Just for documentation here are my popular vote predictions for the presidential election...
For those interested in how I came up with these numbers. I looked at voting trends over the last 60 years. Specifically incumbent presidents and how the voting base shifted between the parties and options. For instance in Arizona, they tend to support an incumbent president. The republican voters didn't drop from election to election with any incumbent republican with the exception of Bush Sr. But, his election is skewed by a viable third party. But even in his year you can see that the Democrats dropped in percentage year over year, so assuming only two options neither had an increase making that years data difficult to consume.
So, I looked at this and some registration data and campaign ad data for each state to come up with my guesses. They are all calculated, so I am sure there is some shoring up I could do with them.